A Beautifully Disastrous Ending to a Magical Season

The five stages of grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance

NFL

A heartbreak ending to a season hurts. All heartbreaks hurt. The San Francisco 49ers just lost in the NFC Championship game to the Philadelphia Eagles. One win away from a Super Bowl berth, yet the win could not be further away.

I went thru the five stages of grief.

1) Denial – “We can come back! If only Shanahan threw that challenge flag on the Devonta Smith “catch.” It is still a close game halfway thru the 2nd quarter. Our defense can win this game on its own. We can still beat the number one seed on the road with no healthy quarterback to throw the ball. It can still happen”

2) Anger – “How do the refs keep calling these soft penalties? That is garbage! How do you expect us to beat the refs and the Eagles! This is BULLSHIT!”

3) Bargaining – “What if we put McCaffrey in the Wildcat Offense? Just run the triple option like an Army-Navy game. We could get a pick six, some turnovers, and maybe Purdy can magically throw in the second half. It is not over yet!”

4) Depression – “Damn. The Niners are going to lose this game. There goes the season. I am not buying my celebratory ski goggles and champagne. Bummer.”

5) Acceptance – “We had a great season. The first ever narrative of Mr. Irrelevant (last person taken in the NFL Draft) and a rookie to maybe win a Super Bowl. The football gods did not have it for us. The cards were stacked against us. What else could I have hoped for with our 3rd and 4th string quarterbacks being injured. C’est la vie.”

That game was not a tragedy. A tragedy is Damar Hamlin suffering cardiac arrest on a nationally televised game for all the country to watch. To see players be absolutely shook that their brother may die on this field. A warped sense of realization that is the NFL going to play this game. But even that was not an ultimate tragedy. Hamlin was still tangled up in the life-or-death approach to sports. When one of his first questions in the hospital was “Did we win the game?” the doctors told him “Yes. You won the game of life.”

Fans too often contort the processing of the game into a mind pretzel. What if this, what if that? There are so many alternate universes that could have just gotten us a win. If Trey Lance did not go down in the 2nd game, if Jimmy G stayed healthy, if Brock Purdy stayed healthy, if Josh (that guy is still playing and for how many teams?) Johnson did not get concussed. We can go on and on.

But back to the pretzel. Pretzels are good. They can be crunchy and a nice little snack. You can get that doughy fancy Pretzel at the movie theater. That pretzel is just as salty and buttery as that movie popcorn you forgo because you wanted a frickin’ pretzel. But can you make a pretzel? Do you have the cooking skills and the delicacy of making an origami to execute a delicious pretzel? Do you even have the time to put in? No. You spend a buck at the gas station driving down highway 5 for a quick snack. Or you shell out a few more bucks to get your Ferrari movie theater pretzel.

That is life. You cannot have it all, but you need to feel blessed with the things you can get with minimal effort and cost. Comfort food is comforting, and you carry on with life. Sports are a joy and distraction from the harder journeys in life. We sit on our couches, escape the stress (or sadistically add to our stress) and enjoy professionals play their hearts out for our entertainment. And then the hope. You can have the cliché hope of “there is always next season.” Life continues and you along with it. That is the beauty of sports.

If you are still in the first four stages of grief, I leave you with three more nuggets (or is it a pretzel?) to chew on. The first is a poem from my favorite book Wooden. The second is a song about loving pain. And the third is the most moving conversation between Stephen Colbert and Anderson Cooper about grief.

A Parent Talks to a Child Before the First Game

This is your first game, my child. I hope you win.

I hope you win for your sake, not mind.

Because winning’s nice.

It’s a good feeling.

Like the whole world is yours.

But, it passes, this feeling.

And what lasts is what you’ve learned.

And what you learn about is life.

That’s what sports is all about. Life

The whole thing is played out in an afternoon.

The happiness of life.

The miseries.

The joys.

The heartbreaks.

There’s no telling what’ll turn up.

There’s no telling whether they’ll toss you out in the first five minutes or whether you’ll stay for the log haul.

There’s no telling how you’ll do.

You might be a hero or you might be absolutely nothing.

There’s just no telling.

Too much depends on chance.

On how the ball bounces.

I’m not talking about the game, my child.

I’m talking about life.

But, it’s life that the game is all about.

Just as I said.

Because every game is life.

And life is a game.

A serious game

Dead serious.

But that’s what you do with serious things.

You do your best.

You take what comes.

You take what comes

And you run with it.

Winning is fun.

Sure.

But winning is not the point.

Wanting to win is the point.

Not giving up is the point.

Never being satisfied with what you’ve done is the point.

Never letting up is the point.

Never letting anyone down is the point.

Play to win.

Sure.

But lose like a champion.

Because it’s not winning that counts.

What counts is trying.

Tribe Society – Pain Told Love ft. Kiesza (LYRICS)

Stephen Colbert on his ‘gratitude’ for the pain of grief and the worst thing that ever happened to him

 

Fans and Media Need to Shut the Hell Up About Shanahan

Kyle Shanahan is a good coach, and everyone needs to stop talking crazy-talk about his fitness as a head coach.

NFL

The fans and media want instant results. They want their dopamine hit of sports heroin. They demand the high of a Super Bowl win to satiate their desires. But this mentality is toxic. It drives good coaches away and brings in temporary replacements that do not work in the end.

American fans are the embodiment of corporate greed. Corporate greed is not just profits, profits, profits. It is profits now! Short term success over sustained excellence. It is money and win now. Screw the planet later. This demand for instant euphoria negates the ascendence to utopia.

I have written this before, but this Twitter and talking heads mob are what drove Jurgen Klinsmann away from US Men’s Soccer. It was a brutal jettison of an excellent coach and it cost our country deeply. The reason he got the boot was because Americans are stupid when it comes to futbol and football. Eyeing the ultimate trophy blinds the vision of how to get there. The journey matters. (Happy Birthday John Wooden!)

Shanahan is an offensive genius. That is the fact. He was the best offensive play caller for at least half a decade before he became head coach. His coaching tree based on his offensive tactics have trickled down to Sean McVay, Matt LaFleur, and Mike McDaniel. Are other fan bases calling for their heads?

The reason people want Shanahan to be better is because they injected their first dose. Kyle Shanahan brought very quick success for a rebuilding franchise. Yet fans forget what he has done in that short time. Fans believe some outsider will be a better product to get the 49ers to glory. The fans and talking heads are wrong.

Shanahan’s record speaks for yourself if you look closer, but step back to understand why:

2017: 6-10 in a rebuild year. Started off slow (as every first coach likely would) then railed off 6 straight with a newly traded Jimmy G.

2018: 4-12 in an injury ridden year. Jimmy G tears his ACL. What team aspires a title when their star newly minted QB gets sidelined for the year?

2019: 13-3 and a Super Bowl appearance. Jimmy G and the rest of the team are healthy.

2020: 6-10 during Covid-19. Jimmy G is hurt part of the year and the 49ers lose Nick Bosa the entire season. Bosa is that number 2 pick that was a game wrecker for the 49ers for the Super Bowl season. Also, Santa Clara Covid rules eliminates 3 of the home games. 

2021: 10-7 and NFC Championship appearance. A tough year yet the 49ers peaked in the playoffs and lost to eventual SB Champion in the NFC Championship game (The 49ers were leading most of that game). 

2022: 3-3 start. Everyone goes crazy and calls for Shanahan’s head.

Say what you want about Shanahan, but he has righted the ship and is steering it across the vast ultra-competitive sea of the NFL. Sure, he has made mistakes. Sure, you can “blame” him for costly errors. Blown leads are not the problem. The problem is that fans internalize these blown leads as lost wins. They do not observe the foundation that acquired such leads. Fans think missteps are the problem. Errors, mistakes, missteps do not disqualify an NFL coach. Fans point to the “reason” for not getting their addiction satisfied. That is Shanahan.

Shanahan gets the team there. How did he get the 49ers there? Foundational building blocks and continuity. Continuity from upper management thru the coaching staff. But, oh wait! He consistently loses coaches to head coaching positions because the 49ers’ organization does so well. Shanahan breeds coaches. The mainstays are just Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch. The lower coaches move up the ladder in the ranks to occupy the vacant positions left by the departures of the future head coaches. The 49ers are working with a turnover rate of Silicon Valley. Talent gets forged in the 49ers’ organization and leaves for their own pursuits. NY Jets and Miami Dolphin fans do not think Robert Saleh and Mike McDaniel are unworthy because they are the fans’ new shiny drugs. Take the prescription first and feel good because of the new medication. That’s how it works in perception.

If the fans want to feel good with their medication, they need a foundational lifestyle to manage their situation. Good habits and health. The 49ers have good habits and (at times) good health. And when they feel good, they just win.

The issue is that mob fans think mistakes are unrepairable. The fans deem a coach a polished gadget. Insert that gadget into the machine and it works. Yet when the machine breaks-down, they want to toss out the gadget without fixing it. Why always replace the gadget with a new insert that possibly does not fit? Just because it is shiny and new? The salesperson (mob fans and talking heads) got the fanbase hooked on what could be desirable. People want the new drug. This misdirection takes the mind away from what the 49ers already have.

Coaches are not finished products on their first coaching opportunity. NBA fans do not expect an NBA rookie, no matter how highly touted, to bring a championship their first year. NBA fans know that development is essential. Players must learn on the job. First-time NFL coaches need to learn on the job too. They need to develop. They need to grow. They need to get better. They need to learn from their mistakes (not get guillotined for them). And after they have gone thru their development, true success arrives.

If a coach needs to develop, what coach is better in the entire league than Kyle Shanahan? 49er fans need to seriously consider this. Shanahan is an offensive genius, and he can develop into an elite level head coach that will stay in the bay for a long time. The 49ers do not want one Super Bowl and then kick their addiction. The organization wants sustained success. The 49ers want what Bill Belichick built in New England. Year after year, decade after decade of excellence. That requires a coach with a vision and continuity in the organization. The Cleveland Browns booted Belichick (a first-time head coach then) and I am sure that Cleveland has no regrets.

Organizations should not get rid of talent. You need talented players, and you need talented coaches. Coaches have talent. Let that talent grow and develop. Please, 49er fans, shut the hell up!

Here is a list from that previous Klinsmann blog about coaching and continuity. In times before, we believed in continuity before our society got so hooked on immediacy. Desperation is not a good path.

UCLA Bruins: John Wooden was hired in 1948. From 1964-1975 he won 10 of 12 national championships.  A 16-year wait.

Boston Celtics: Red Auerbach was hired in 1950. From 1957 to 1966 he won 9 of 10 championships.  A 7-year wait.

Duke Blue Devils: Mike Krzyzewksi was hired in 1980. Didn’t win his first of five national championships until 1991. An 11-year wait.

San Francisco Giants: Brian Sabean was hired as GM in 1996. Didn’t win his first of three World Series titles until 2010. A 14-year wait.

So let the 49ers keep Shanahan and let him develop and grow to what all fans knew from the beginning. That he can be an elite long-term solution to the 49ers. 

I quote the words of Shanahan’s favorite artist. The artist that he named his son Carter after. Yes, that is Lil’ Wayne:

Now that’s how you let the beat build, b*tch

That’s how you let the beat build b*tch

Now that’s how you let the beat build b*tch

Let the Beat build b*tch

And the beat go

Boom… b-boom-ba-boom

Boom… b-boom-ba-boom

It go boom… b-boom-ba-boom

Now say… (yeah yeah yeah)

WE, yes, WE are Champions!

Dubnation just won another title. It is Dubnation. It is us that won.

NBA

I find it petty that people want to call out fans when they say “we” won a championship. A usual retort is “are you on the team? Then you did not win a championship. You are not on the court, you are not playing, you just watch the team perform.” I hate this. When people exclude fans from the we, what are these people trying to accomplish? The only notion to step on fans and exclude the fans is to take away their personal joy.

When someone says that he or she is from the bay are people going to ask that person whether he or she runs the city, perform civic duties, or enforces laws? No. When fans identify themselves as “we” with a sports team it is like saying they are from a region. Fans develop a sense of identity with their passions. We bought tickets to the game, we tuned in on local television, and we feel the emotions; joy and sorrow as we watch our team. Why cut them down in that journey?

This same sentiment is weaponized when people attack bandwagon fans. Bandwagon fans materialize because something is transcendent, inspiring, and so enthralling it captures the community more than just the beleaguered. Losses, bruises, and disappointment do not elevate someone’s experiences as more worthy than another who wants to join the party. The previously punished fans may appreciate the win more, feel more joy, and ultimately find solace in relief. But the beaten up, just because they took the hits, does not make them better than anyone else who soaks up the positive energy. There are no solar panels that are depleting the sun.

I once was at a bar the season after the Giants won a World Series (one of their 3 championships, I can’t remember). Some dude called me out as a bandwagon fan. I told him I was not. But go ahead and pop off sir. This guy proceeded to quiz me on Giants’ knowledge. After I crushed his soul, like Stephen Colbert crushed James Franco in Tolkien lore, he acknowledged I was a “true” fan. Whatever buddy. As if I need your stamp of approval from a Padres Dodgers fan. (I think I remember it was a Padres fan, but for my own personal fun factor, I am retelling this story as if the dude was a Dodgers fan.)

This is what irks me. Why do we have to exclude? Why does a person feel like they have a leg up on someone else because the excluder denied that someone else their access? The solar panels are not depleting the sun.

I have brought a few different friends to party many different times. On more than a few occasions there are murmurs from people like “why is he here?” “Who invited him?” 

“Um, I brought him here, what’s the problem?”

 “He isn’t cool enough.” “He’s lame.”

“Well, I was invited, and I am ‘cool enough’ and I invited my buddy.”

First off, what does “cool enough” mean? Is there some sort of criteria you must check off to be cool? Do you have to pass a test of 20 questions? I understand some celebrities, athletes, etc. project a sense of cool. Maybe from their mannerisms, their fashion, their sheer presence. But us common folk, what is “cool enough?“

The sad reality is that these insults reflect on the insulter. Does someone else’s presence affect the insulter’s reputation or image? If the insulter worries about being in the same room with someone that isn’t “cool enough,” reality check, you, Mr. or Ms. Insulter, are not in fact that cool. You are not secure in yourself that you must jockey external factors to make you look “cool enough.” 

What made me think of all this, is this Golden State Warriors’ run. I have invited my friends to always join me to watch a game. Whether the invite was the day of, the week before, the month before, a year ago, I invited you. (Not going to lie, I am a cool hang with watching sports.) It is always an open invite. I am always posted up in my (some may say man cave) place. It is totally understandable that people feel reticent to ask to come after my initial invite. I say this, as an apology, to all my friends that I do not follow up and invite individually at every event. But everyone is welcome.

This is not to say that everyone is always welcome. People makes mistakes and commit violations. If someone abuses my friendship, or worse, abuses one of my friends, I have no problem excommunicating that violator just like Chase Center banned Fake Klay Thompson for life.

But from the start, everyone deserves an invite. Someone is not discriminated from buying a ticket to a game because of what he or she looks like, how he or she dresses, or how (perceived) annoying he or she is. Sports do not exclude. There are logistical limits to how many people can fit into an arena and stadium. But anyone, can watch a game somewhere. Solar panels do not deplete the sun.

My crew for game six watched the Warriors seal the championship in Boston. After we got out all our joyous cursing we settled down and reflected on this postseason run. We have had a lot of people come thru our place during this postseason and it was all fun. 

But this shook me. My roommate, the guy who shares the same mailbox, who has keys to our apartment, who barbeques at our parties, turned to me, and said, “Dude this was so fun, thanks for hosting.” Without me blubbering my emotions into the eternal scripture that is the internet, I can say that is one the best compliments that I have ever received. 

It is not about the location. It is about the inclusion.

Unless you are Fake Klay Thompson.

Yearning for Jurgen

US Soccer’s mistake in firing its best coach ever cost the country a World Cup berth.

International Soccer

America what were you thinking? You had the best boyfriend for you and you broke up with him. What happened? Couldn’t you see he was great? He was the best man for you but you listened to your jealous friends. They kept talking in your ear that he was no good for you. What did they know? They nitpicked and got you all riled up until you succumbed. After the break up, you made an even worse decision and got back together with your ex. And your ex led you down a hole that you will not recover from for over four years.

The United States Men’s National Soccer Team’s (USMNT) hopeful saga and eventual downfall has been in the works for years. US Soccer hired Jurgen Klinsmann in 2011 as its 35^th head coach of the national team after letting go of a competent Bob Bradley. Bradley was solid, leading us to a Confederations Cup final and top of our group in the World Cup in 2010. But the feeling was that Bradley probably could not to take us to the promise land. In fact, the truth was that we fired Bradley because we had our eye on an absolutely stellar coach. This guy once coached Germany to third in the World Cup and got hired at Bayern Munich. US Soccer had its first chance to corral a world-class caliber coach. We yearned for ultimate success so we turned to the best US soccer investment ever. Yearning for Klinsmann was a reality.

The 5 Biggest Threats to the Warriors Over the Next 5 Years

Who can slay the kings of the NBA?

NBA

The Golden State Warriors are dominant. It appeared as if the Warriors waltzed through the playoffs en route to a 16-1 playoff record. Their three-year run of regular season record-breaking win totals and two championships firmly plants the Warriors in the best team ever conversation. However, what could happen over the next five plus seasons may make NBA history buffs go bonkers. The Warriors’ core four are early in their primes: Stephen Curry (age 29), Kevin Durant (28), Draymond Green (27) and Klay Thompson (27). The only age issue is the Death Lineup’s fifth teammate Andre Iguodala at 33 years old. General manager Bob Myers is a pro at rounding out the roster with guys that complete the team (Shaun Livingston, David West, Javale McGee) but it is those aforementioned five main guys that mold the team into an all-time elite.

So if the Warriors are this good, stay this good and possibly get better, who can knock the Dubs of their supremacy? Money is on the Warriors evidenced by the 5-11 current odds for next year’s championship. But what if we project over several years?

Here are the five biggest threats to dethrone the Warriors over the next five seasons:

5. San Antonio Spurs

Two reasons make the San Antonio Spurs top five on this list and only number five on this list: Gregg Popovich and Kawhi Leonard.

Gregg Popovich

Coaching is huge in the NBA. The Warriors ascended from a first/second round playoff team to a championship with largely the same roster that added Steve Kerr as head coach. Kerr has worked magic thus far, but Popovich has been doing it for two decades. With Pop at the helm, the Spurs finished top three in the Western Conference 16 out of 20 years, made the Conference Finals or further ten times and won five championships. That equates to making the Conference Finals 50 percent of the time and winning 25 percent of the championships. Pop is one of the best coaches ever and the Spurs are championship caliber every year. Pop is the most dangerous matchup for anyone facing the Spurs. If any coach is going to find the secret sauce to frying the Warriors Pop is the iron chef candidate.

However, Pop is 68 years old and NBA coaching takes a toll. Does he have five years left in him to be coaching into his 70s? Only Hubie Brown, Don Nelson and Larry Brown make the short list for septuagenarian NBA head coaches. If Pop retires in the near future the Spurs immediately teeter off championship contention. It does not matter how good of an organization the Spurs are. Pop is a generational talent and the Spurs will not replace him without a drop off.

Kawhi Leonard and who else?

Kawhi is a top-five NBA player that should be fixed in the MVP debate every year. He has evolved from a lockdown defender to adding bona fide bucket getter to his arsenal. Many respect Kawhi as the best two-way player in the game. Any player that good is a threat to beat any team. On the other hand, Kawhi is just one man.

Kawhi certainly can be the best player on a championship winning team, but can the Spurs realistically beat the Dubs in a seven game series when Kawhi is the only elite player? The answer is no, especially given the fact that Kawhi has not yet evolved into a superstar playmaker in the same vein as Lebron James creating easy looks for his teammates. And even peak Lebron needed superstar sidekicks in Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh in Miami and Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in Cleveland.

Defensively, it was a delicious matchup a couple years ago when the idea was that Pop could employ Kawhi on Steph. Put the KLaw, the best perimeter defender in the league, on Steph in the fourth quarter and possibly shut Steph down. That was the option. But currently Kawhi must be on KD duty. With KD’s versatile skillset and length, the Spurs have to put the dynamic Kawhi on KD or else the Spurs get torched. Then San Antonio must bank on their defensive scheme execution in chasing around Steph and Klay all day. The Spurs are capable of doing this. But defensive competence is not the sole problem especially when looking at the backcourt.

The backcourt matchup will not be decided on how well the Spurs quell Curry and Klay. The bigger issue is if the Spurs’ guards can match offensive firepower with the Splash Brothers. This is not happening with the current Spurs roster. No combination of Patty Mills, Danny Green, Dejounte Murray or aging stars Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker is staying afloat with the Splash Brothers and Co.

An interesting development would be if the Spurs could land an elite point guard. A superstar guard, particularly a point guard is essential for championship contention in the NBA. There are potential future options in Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Isaiah Thomas, Kemba Walker and maybe even Mike Conley. (Kyrie would have been ideal but now he is in Boston for the next two years and possibly beyond.)

Theoretically, it could be Kawhi and an elite point guard as cornerstones with LaMarcus Aldridge as the third option. (A free agency addition, a you-never-know discount, losing Green/Ginobili/Parker and/or Pau Gasol and keeping Aldridge is feasible with the Spurs’ salary cap outlook.) Despite Aldridge’s regression since coming to the Spurs he becomes an excellent number three. But that is a big what-if considering the rumored grumblings that Aldridge is not happy being second fiddle to Kawhi. And then the Draymond kryptonite factor has the potential to reduce Aldridge’s offensive production to almost nil while making Aldridge a defensive liability.

The Spurs would need to find enough versatile wings and fleet-footed big men to keep up with the Warriors’ Death Lineup. They once had the cheap tools to do so in Dewayne Dedmon and Jonathon Simmons but unfortunately both are now gone to more lucrative contracts. The Spurs need to find more “Spurs’ system guys” like they always seem to do in the Popovich era.

Their first swing is adding a post-Achilles injury Rudy Gay. Whether the Spurs whiff or connect with Gay is difficult to determine. Many opinions want to veer away from an athletic explosive player recovering from a catastrophic injury. But then again some viewpoints turn back because it is in fact the Spurs and they get the benefit of the doubt.

The Spurs’ current construction is probably not enough to take down the Warriors but there are hopeful puzzle pieces out there and Popovich is a master builder.

4. Houston Rockets

The Houston Rockets are fourth on this list because they have the highest upside coupled with biggest uncertainty.

Upside

The Rockets’ upside stems from general manager Daryl Morey and the organization embracing analytics. Morey, the co-founder of MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and the Rockets are the first NBA team to go full Billy Beane. The “Moreyball” approach constructed their roster and directed their gameplay according to analytics.

Last season, the Rockets were under doctor’s orders to take basically two doses: layups/dunks at the rim and a barrage of threes. They put up historic numbers in offensive production and the tantalizing question is if this is the formula for the future.

Morey make moves as if he is immune to fear from failure. He has no qualms stating that tanking is smart and may be quickest and reliable way to rebuild and ascend to the top citing the Houston Astros as an example. Morey’s focus is to make the best team regardless of how people criticize and squirm when one deviates from the status quo. In the past few years, Morey brought in Dwight Howard (reaching a two-seed and conference finals) and jettisoned Dwight a year later when the Harden-Dwight chemistry went sour.

The offseason Chris Paul move was to add to the superstars’ arms race. The idea is to stack up Team USA players. Get another elite playmaker that can also shore up their mid-range weakness. A CP3-Harden combo reinvigorates the best backcourt in the NBA debate versus the Splash Brothers.

The next target is Carmelo Anthony. Many want to question the merits of Melo as a championship contender, but the consensus is that Team USA Melo, where he rains open corner and wing threes, is the best version. Melo as a Moreyball third option seems like a good fit. The hump for Morey is extracting Melo from the New York Knicks.

What if Morey can snag an impactful big man in the coming years? Clint Capela looks good with Harden and is still developing but he is not exactly a big problem for Draymond and KD. How about a DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond? Nothing is outside the realm of possibility in this new era where stars congregate and winning priorities can trump money.

Uncertainty

The CP3-Harden saga could be a really good Zoolander or an atrocious Zoolander 2. The backcourt pairing is an attempt to hit a bomb like Aaron Judge with a higher strikeout potential. Both players are so ball dominant that maybe they cannot exist together. Will Paul’s fiery and critical demeanor clash with Harden or other teammates? Add isolation king Melo and will that mix blend smoothly or bubble out like baking soda and vinegar?

           

What about the balance between offense and defense? Coach Mike D’Antoni is offensively outstanding, but defensively deficient. Can defensive assistant coach, Jeff Bzdelik, mold the Rockets into an elite defensive team the way guru Ron Adams has done for the Warriors? The Rockets will not beat the Warriors in a playoff series if Houston’s defense is lacking. The Rockets’ defense needs to improve, especially Harden. Harden must give maximum effort chasing Klay around the court or be able to hold his own on a mismatch switch.

On paper, the other personnel moves actually look pretty good for a defensive mindset. CP3 is a top defender at the point. P.J. Tucker, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Trevor Ariza seem to be the type of versatile wing players to afford a lot of switching. The Warriors thrive on ball movement and player movement and the opposition has to be schematically defensively sound more so than just pure one-on-one defending. That means good coaching leading to defensive communication, continuity, and commitment.

The Rockets defense can get better, but will it ever be good enough? Houston now has good defensive players, not necessarily defensive studs. Their defense projects as less stalwart than the Warriors’ defense, who have all-defensive team talents in Klay, Iguodala, Durant and Draymond. The Dubs have proven they can turn off the faucet while the Rockets may only be able to slow the flow.

The Rockets are assembling their army but they may need Morey to snag more Olympians to take down the champs.

3. Milwaukee Bucks

The Milwaukee Bucks’ outlook depends not on where they are now, but where they can be over the next five seasons. They have a budding roster with oozing potential the way Golden State’s roster looked pre-Kerr.

Why it is possible: The Giannis Effect, Length, and Thon Maker.

           

Giannis Antetokounmpo, aka the Greek Freak, aka the Alphabet, is a beast. He became the first player in NBA history to finish top 20 in the league in all five major statistical categories: total points, rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He also became the fourth in history to lead his respective team in all five categories. Versatility is the most sought after trait to thwarting the Warriors and Giannis has got it all.

Giannis is scarily only 22 years old. In his first four seasons in the league, every year he has increased all five of those aforementioned stats, plus field goal percentage. Last season’s strides were the greatest as Giannis took home the Most Improved Player award. The hottest Giannis topic is discussing not if but when he will win MVP. NBA championships are predicated on superstar players and Giannis has the most out of this world potential in the entire league. What can he become and when he becomes it who will be able to stop him?

Equally important in assessing the Bucks potential in this ranking is the rest of the Bucks complimentary roster. Milwaukee has length and athletes. The wingspans according to DraftExpress for the Bucks’ key players include: Giannis (7’3”), Thon Maker (7’3”), Greg Monroe (7’2”), Tony Snell (6'11"), Jabari Parker (6’11”) Khris Middleton (6’10”) and Malcolm Brogdon (6’10”). That bests the Warriors who are considered around the league to have long and athletic strengths: Durant (7’4”), Draymond (7’1”), Iguodala (6’11”), Klay (6’9”), Shaun Livingston (6’11”) and Steph Curry (6’3”).

The Bucks’ length has caused the Warriors fits the past two seasons. The Dubs’ offense feels more stagnant against Milwaukee than against most teams. Deflections seem more prevalent against the defensive versatility and length. Passing windows look smaller and shots are more contested.

The key to Milwaukee’s potential defensive dominance is Maker. Their roster has guys that that can be quite good and solid defensively but Maker could be stellar. When you watch the Bucks play, you can observe how Maker hunts on the defensive end. He helps quickly and swats furiously. With Maker there are the Kevin Garnett comparisons and even KG himself had high praise for the young player in his rookie season. Maker played sparingly in the beginning of his rookie campaign then earned good time with an entrenched starter’s role. His deep shot is already decent, putting him in the potential to have a Draymond-type impact defensively and offensively.

What needs to happen?

The biggest need is having a point guard worthy of a championship team. Brogdon was solid in his first year and won Rookie of the Year, but he is far from Steph stratosphere. The Bucks need an aggressive Brogdon development or plug in a microwave-ready point guard off the market. The good thing about their point guard future is that the Bucks have Jason Kidd as their head coach. Kidd, an all-time great, would seem to be the perfect basketball mind to develop a point or else convince an elite one to join.

A healthy Jabari is always an X-factor to add to the offensive efficiency. Monroe is also a solid role player option that scores with his back to the basket. These type of players are valuable against the Warriors a kin to how the Memphis Grizzlies have presented problems for the Dubs over the past few years. The Bucks have the core roster. They just need to reach their sky-high potential.

2. Boston Celtics

The Boston Celtics are the number two threat to the Warriors because the Celtics present the strongest amalgam of coach, general manager, and roster.

Brad Stevens

Outside of Pop, Brad Stevens is the best coach on this list and has room to grow. In Stevens’ first four years as coach he has lead Boston to a seventh seed in year two, a fifth seed in year three and one seed and Eastern Conference Finals berth in year four. Stevens’ coaching has gotten better every year and shines the brightest in the playoffs. So far he simply outcoaches others in the Eastern Conference.

Stevens has imposed a mix of high quality offensive execution and discipline with an equally impressive defense. The Celtics have been the best defense on the Warriors the past few seasons. Their perimeter play has kept up with the fast-paced Warriors better than anyone else. The Celtics match up well. There is a chance that former Celtic Avery Bradley was the cog that kept the Dubs at bay and losing Bradley may hurt greatly. But a lot of the Celtics’ success has to do with Stevens’ defensive schemes.

Stevens has the insight to think progressively when it comes to basketball. He recently claimed that he does not categorize players in terms of the traditional positions (point guard, small forward, center, etc.). He sees three types of players: ball handlers, wings and big men. It is this type of simplistic yet flexible perspective that a coach needs to beat the Warriors. To extinguish the Warriors you need a coach that mixes and matches and a team that has the players to meet such demands.

Danny Ainge

Danny Ainge, the general manager of the Celtics, is the brain trust behind developing a roster to compete with Cleveland in the East and eventually topple the Warriors. Ainge makes savvy moves and Ainge makes ruthless moves. The guy pulled the trigger trading Celtics legend Paul Pierce for assets and most recently getting rid of fan favorite Thomas for what hopes to be an upgrade in Irving. He has the green light to make any move and is not afraid to take off. His infamous will-trade-his-own-mother approach is exactly the competitive advantage the Celtics need in order to compile a championship contender. Much like Morey is an asset in Houston, Ainge makes a huge impact for Boston.

                                   

Roster

In order to compete with the Warriors a team must have a complete roster laden with star power. Stevens landed the most prized free agent of the 2017 summer, reuniting with his college superstar Gordon Hayward. Hayward has developed into an all-star, capable of carrying his Utah Jazz team’s offensive load into the second round of the Western Conference. He has flashed playmaking in his repertoire and now it is time to take the next step on a more complete Boston team.

If the Kyrie Irving trade goes through, the Celtics have two top offensive threats. Kyrie has proven he can go toe-to-toe with Steph on the biggest stage. It is conceivable that Kyrie, at 25, could eventually surpass Steph. Kyrie was unstoppable at times against the Warriors. His unbelievable finishes and ball handling strikes fear in Warriors’ faithful, even with the prospect of Klay shadowing Kyrie. A Hayward and Kyrie pairing places the Celtics as one of the most formidable point guard/small forward matchups that can hang with the Dubs.

With an established top two, it comes down to the rest of the Celtics to tip the scales against the Warriors. Al Horford is an excellent big man. He does not get enough credit anchoring teams. He is decently mobile for a big man making him perimeter capable, a necessary feature to take on the Warriors. Horford exhibits all the championship level intangibles and does all the little things. Since Lebron has returned to Cleveland only two teams in the East finished higher than the Cavs in the regular season standings. The 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks with Horford and the 2016-17 Boston Celtics with a newly acquired Horford. He is a good big man on good teams and a Horford-Zaza Pachulia matchup favors the Celtics.

           

The what-ifs are rookie Jayson Tatum and second-year Jaylen Brown. Tatum has enough hype for Bostonians to wish for a second coming of Pierce. Brown was one of the most serviceable rookies last year and he could develop into a solid NBA player both defensively and offensively. Add in Marcus Morris and rookie Semi Ojeleye and the Celtics are executing the anti-Warrior blueprint by collecting versatile wing players.

Ainge and assets, Stevens as the puppet master and a talented roster make the Celtics capable of taking down the Warriors over the next five seasons. A Beantown game changer would be if Ainge and Stevens find a way to corral Anthony Davis or Demarcus Cousins to the Celtics.

1. Lebron James

Lebron James and the retooled Cleveland Cavaliers.

Or Lebron and a new cast of Los Angeles Lakers.

Or how about Lebron and the dysfunctional New York Knicks?

Or possibly Lebron back in Miami sunshine.

Or even Lebron and an expansion team.

Lebron is the greatest threat to the Warriors. The only team Lebron is not public enemy number one to the Warriors is if Lebron is on the Golden State Warriors.

It is not necessary to deeply analyze the merits of a Lebron threat that is well documented. He is one of the greatest players ever and always elevates his teammates to championship level heights. Lebron can only be slowed by time, age and eventual retirement. With Lebron spending $1.5 million per year on his body, his commitment to rest and peaking during the playoffs, he may play at late age championship levels à la Tom Brady.

Lebron is a Warriors’ problem and Lebron hopes to be the ultimate solution to cracking Golden State once again.

The Russell Westbrook MVP Fallacy

Voters' misconception handed the MVP to the wrong guy.

NBA

Russell Westbrook should not have won the NBA’s Most Valuable Player award. I am Mugatu and “I feel like I’m taking crazy pills!” Why are so many so blind? Why are people watching bad basketball and thinking it is good basketball? What the hell is going on?

The MVP crowning that was inevitable since the end of the season was doomed from the beginning. At the outset of the season I predicted a Westbrook-Thunder implosion. While I watched an implosion of team basketball, the masses, paid professional pundits and writers instead watched a one-man explosion and awed at the theatrics while disregarding the rubble. I said the Thunder were at best-case scenario a first round playoff exit. Everyone was aware of this ceiling at the end of the season, but nonetheless nearly 70% of voters still anointed Westbrook MVP.

An already selfish player turned up his ball hogging tendencies more and he was rewarded with the highest trophy. Westbrook made himself more prominent and his team worse for it, but people did not care because he looked really good doing it. I felt like I was back in youth soccer watching the best player on our team dribble the ball to oblivion every possession. And at halftime when we had zero goals we did not tell the kid to move the ball but instead we all congratulated him for juking out five guys.

I think Westbrook honestly believes that his brand of basketball is the best way to win. He must truly believe it is all him or nothing. And now he is reaffirmed in that belief. Westbrook received the greatest individual award in a team sport by being the least team-oriented player. All because people got drunk on statistics and thought a bad idea was a good idea.

This triple-double garble was the problem. Westbrook did in fact reach an arbitrary measuring mark only seen once before. I get it, but I also see through it. His usage rate went sky high and he became the sole focal point of the Thunder offense. So he scored more points on more field goal attempts. Yet he had the same true shooting percentage as last year and had the same assists per game as last year. He did not play better. He played the same, more often and without Kevin Durant. No KD means all the looks and all the attention. That is what he wanted. But achieving the same heights while losing a top caliber teammate is a factor, not the factor.

The two main arguments for Westbrook to win MVP were that he averaged a triple double and he does it all for his team that is not very good. One is meaninglessly true and the other is a product of Westbrook’s gameplay.

If we look at the statistics there was a comparable player: James Harden. Here are the statistics for points per game (PPG), true shooting percentage (TS%) that takes into account efficiency of 2-pointers, 3-pointers and free throws, assists (AST) and rebounds (REB).

Russell Westbrook:             31.6 PPG, 55.4 TS%, 10.4 AST, 10.7 REB

James Harden:                    29.1 PPG, 61.3 TS%, 11.2 AST, 8.1 REB

So people want to choose the guy that scored 2.5 points more per game? But Harden had almost an assist more per game, which is worth two or three points. So combining points and assists it was basically a wash. “Don’t forget about rebounds.” That is correct. So the whole thing swings on 2.6 rebounds per game by the point guard? (We do count those extra rebounds where Westbrook crashes hard on defensive free throws, right?) While grabbing those boards were essential for all those patented one-man fast breaks, the overall efficiency was not drastically better. So Westbrook can have the 2.6 extra rebounds and Harden will take the true shooting percentage difference of nearly six percent. Harden was a more efficient scorer on 18.9 shots per game while Westbrook fired up 24.0 shots per game. The other guy actually has the better stats.

OK, maybe some really love rebounds? Like how they really love Andre Drummond? They are not impressed by the 2.6 rebound difference. What they really are impressed with is the “shiny round number” of 10+ total rebounds and the accompanying triple-double buzzword. That benchmark allows them to package all the statistics into a digestible happy meal where they are more impressed with the marketing than the actual taste. It is fool's gold. They are being seduced by cheap food. There are better options out there that are tastier and healthier.

In order to truly choose the Westbrook platter over the Harden dish one had to listen to the pro-Harden arguments and not care despite their truth. These were the intertwined arguments: 1) Harden actually made his teammates better and 2) Harden’s team won more games.

First, Harden elevated the play of his teammates. If you watched any part of a Rockets game this was readily apparent. As the Harden engine went the rest of the team fueled off of it. He broke down defenses, created space and found the open man for the open deep three or the easy look at the basket. His gameplay created all the action that allowed all the others to excel. Everyone played better and looked better because Harden facilitated this.

The Westbrook car drove at a different pace. Westbrook went full throttle and took over the entire game for the Thunder. He was really good at it and single handedly won games. Again, those Westbrook-only fast breaks were killer but the half court offense was stagnant. Westbrook is so good at being a one-man show that his team made the playoffs in the Western Conference playing this style. But this style did not maximize the team. The style amplified Westbrook while dampening the other players. There was no rhythm for the team. There was Westbrook hanging on to the ball while the other players could never get it going. People incorrectly harangued the other teammates when they should have pointed fingers at the lack of winning basketball that was played.

There was a reason why John Wooden never went all Kareem: 

“I believe, for example I could have made Kareem the greatest scorer in college history. I could have done that by developing the team around that ability of his. Would we have won three national championships while he was at UCLA? Never. Besides, he wouldn’t have wanted that. He was a very unselfish player, the best kind of player, one who put the welfare of the team ahead of his own personal glory.” (Wooden: A Lifetime of Observations and Reflections on and off the Court, pg. 78)

Second, Harden’s Rockets won eight more games this season than Westbrook’s Thunder. That should count in the MVP calculation. And people counter with the argument that Harden had better teammates. That is not entirely true. Bill Simmons framed the better teammates argument best: If you pooled the Thunder and Rockets players in a schoolyard pick’em whom would you choose? You would have taken Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo of the Thunder over Patrick Beverly/Eric Gordon and Clint Capela of the Rockets. Houston had better depth, but the perception of teammates’ abilities did not truly heavily favor Houston. Harden’s teammates played better because of Harden and Westbrook’s teammates played worse because of Westbrook. It is that simple. Yet people act mystified with how bad the other Thunder teammates play without focusing the lens on the glaring reason.

When did we lose sight of winning? We had it right even in the year Oscar Robertson averaged a triple-double when Bill Russell won the MVP. Winning matters. James Harden should have won MVP. And the cases for Kawhi Leonard and Steph Curry should have been listened to more.

Now both Harden and Westbrook will have help. We will see if Harden can keep the team chemistry when it mixes with another ball dominant player in Chris Paul. I believe it will work because despite being ball dominant they are each very unselfish. They prioritize setting up their teammates for good shots rather than taking bad shots (that they can make) themselves.

We will see if Westbrook can co-exist with another top-notch small forward. While the Thunder now have the talent, I believe Paul George will be headed to Hollywood faster than you can say “Lonzo loves to dish the rock.”