Who can slay the kings of the NBA?
NBA
The Golden State Warriors are dominant. It appeared as if the Warriors waltzed through the playoffs en route to a 16-1 playoff record. Their three-year run of regular season record-breaking win totals and two championships firmly plants the Warriors in the best team ever conversation. However, what could happen over the next five plus seasons may make NBA history buffs go bonkers. The Warriors’ core four are early in their primes: Stephen Curry (age 29), Kevin Durant (28), Draymond Green (27) and Klay Thompson (27). The only age issue is the Death Lineup’s fifth teammate Andre Iguodala at 33 years old. General manager Bob Myers is a pro at rounding out the roster with guys that complete the team (Shaun Livingston, David West, Javale McGee) but it is those aforementioned five main guys that mold the team into an all-time elite.
So if the Warriors are this
good, stay this good and possibly get better, who can knock the Dubs of their
supremacy? Money is on the Warriors evidenced by the 5-11 current odds for next year’s championship. But what if we project over several
years?
Here are the five biggest
threats to dethrone the Warriors over the next five seasons:
5. San Antonio Spurs
Two reasons make the San
Antonio Spurs top five on this list and only number five on this list: Gregg
Popovich and Kawhi Leonard.
Gregg Popovich
Coaching is huge in the NBA.
The Warriors ascended from a first/second round playoff team to a championship
with largely the same roster that added Steve Kerr as head coach. Kerr has
worked magic thus far, but Popovich has been doing it for two decades. With Pop
at the helm, the Spurs finished top three in the Western Conference
16 out of 20 years, made the Conference Finals or further ten times and won
five championships. That equates
to making the Conference Finals 50 percent of the time and winning 25 percent
of the championships. Pop is one of the best coaches ever and the Spurs are
championship caliber every year. Pop is the most dangerous matchup for anyone
facing the Spurs. If any coach is going to find the secret sauce to frying the
Warriors Pop is the iron chef candidate.
However, Pop is 68 years old
and NBA coaching takes a toll. Does he have five years left in him to be
coaching into his 70s? Only
Hubie Brown, Don Nelson and Larry Brown make the short list for septuagenarian
NBA head coaches. If Pop retires in the near future the Spurs immediately
teeter off championship contention. It does not matter how good of an
organization the Spurs are. Pop is a generational talent and the Spurs will not
replace him without a drop off.
Kawhi Leonard and who else?
Kawhi is a top-five NBA
player that should be fixed in the MVP debate every year. He has evolved from a
lockdown defender to adding bona fide bucket getter to his arsenal. Many
respect Kawhi as the best two-way player in the game. Any player that good is a
threat to beat any team. On the other hand, Kawhi is just one man.
Kawhi certainly can be the
best player on a championship winning team, but can the Spurs realistically
beat the Dubs in a seven game series when Kawhi is the only elite player? The
answer is no, especially given the fact that Kawhi has not yet evolved into a
superstar playmaker in the same vein as Lebron James creating easy looks for
his teammates. And even peak Lebron needed superstar sidekicks in Dwayne Wade
and Chris Bosh in Miami and Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love in Cleveland.
Defensively, it was a
delicious matchup a couple years ago when the idea was that Pop could employ Kawhi
on Steph. Put the KLaw, the best perimeter defender in the league, on Steph in
the fourth quarter and possibly shut Steph down. That was the option. But currently
Kawhi must be on KD duty. With KD’s versatile skillset and length, the Spurs have
to put the dynamic Kawhi on KD or else the Spurs get torched. Then San Antonio
must bank on their defensive scheme execution in chasing around Steph and Klay
all day. The Spurs are capable of doing this. But defensive competence is not the
sole problem especially when looking at the backcourt.
The backcourt matchup will
not be decided on how well the Spurs quell Curry and Klay. The bigger issue is if
the Spurs’ guards can match offensive firepower with the Splash Brothers. This
is not happening with the current Spurs roster. No combination of Patty Mills,
Danny Green, Dejounte Murray or aging stars Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker is staying
afloat with the Splash Brothers and Co.
An interesting development
would be if the Spurs could land an elite point guard. A superstar guard,
particularly a point guard is essential for championship contention in the NBA.
There are potential future options in Chris Paul, Russell Westbrook, Isaiah
Thomas, Kemba Walker and maybe even Mike Conley. (Kyrie would have been ideal
but now he is in Boston for the next two years and possibly beyond.)
Theoretically, it could be
Kawhi and an elite point guard as cornerstones with LaMarcus Aldridge as the
third option. (A free agency addition, a you-never-know discount, losing
Green/Ginobili/Parker and/or Pau Gasol and keeping Aldridge is feasible with
the Spurs’ salary cap outlook.) Despite Aldridge’s regression since coming to
the Spurs he becomes an excellent number three. But that is a big what-if
considering the rumored grumblings that Aldridge is not happy being second
fiddle to Kawhi. And then the Draymond kryptonite factor has the potential to
reduce Aldridge’s offensive production to almost nil while making Aldridge a
defensive liability.
The Spurs would need to find
enough versatile wings and fleet-footed big men to keep up with the Warriors’ Death
Lineup. They once had the cheap tools to do so in Dewayne Dedmon and Jonathon
Simmons but unfortunately both are now gone to more lucrative contracts. The
Spurs need to find more “Spurs’ system guys” like they always seem to do in the
Popovich era.
Their first swing is adding
a post-Achilles injury Rudy Gay. Whether the Spurs whiff or connect with Gay is
difficult to determine. Many opinions want to veer away from an athletic
explosive player recovering from a catastrophic injury. But then again some
viewpoints turn back because it is in fact the Spurs and they get the benefit
of the doubt.
The Spurs’ current
construction is probably not enough to take down the Warriors but there are
hopeful puzzle pieces out there and Popovich is a master builder.
4. Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets are
fourth on this list because they have the highest upside coupled with biggest
uncertainty.
Upside
The Rockets’ upside stems
from general manager Daryl Morey and the organization embracing analytics. Morey,
the co-founder of MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, and the Rockets are
the first NBA team to go full Billy Beane. The “Moreyball” approach constructed
their roster and directed their gameplay according to analytics.
Last season, the Rockets
were under doctor’s orders to take basically two doses: layups/dunks at the rim
and a barrage of threes. They put up historic numbers in offensive production
and the tantalizing question is if this is the formula for the future.
Morey make moves as if he is
immune to fear from failure. He
has no qualms stating that tanking is smart and may be quickest and reliable way
to rebuild and ascend to the top citing the Houston Astros as an example.
Morey’s focus is to make the best team regardless of how people criticize and
squirm when one deviates from the status quo. In the past few years, Morey
brought in Dwight Howard (reaching a two-seed and conference finals) and
jettisoned Dwight a year later when the Harden-Dwight chemistry went sour.
The offseason Chris Paul
move was to add to the superstars’ arms race. The
idea is to stack up Team USA players. Get another elite playmaker that can
also shore up their mid-range weakness. A CP3-Harden combo reinvigorates the
best backcourt in the NBA debate versus the Splash Brothers.
The next target is Carmelo
Anthony. Many want to question the merits of Melo as a championship contender, but
the consensus is that Team USA Melo, where he rains open corner and wing threes,
is the best version. Melo as a Moreyball third option seems like a good fit.
The hump for Morey is extracting Melo from the New York Knicks.
What if Morey can snag an
impactful big man in the coming years? Clint Capela looks good with Harden and
is still developing but he is not exactly a big problem for Draymond and KD.
How about a DeAndre Jordan or Andre Drummond? Nothing is outside the realm of
possibility in this new era where stars congregate and winning priorities can
trump money.
Uncertainty
The CP3-Harden saga could be
a really good Zoolander or an atrocious Zoolander 2. The backcourt pairing is an
attempt to hit a bomb like Aaron Judge with a higher strikeout potential. Both
players are so ball dominant that maybe they cannot exist together. Will Paul’s
fiery and critical demeanor clash with Harden or other teammates? Add isolation
king Melo and will that mix blend smoothly or bubble out like baking soda and
vinegar?
What about the balance
between offense and defense? Coach Mike D’Antoni is offensively outstanding,
but defensively deficient. Can defensive assistant coach, Jeff Bzdelik,
mold the Rockets into an elite defensive team the way guru Ron Adams has done for
the Warriors? The Rockets will not beat the Warriors in a playoff series if Houston’s
defense is lacking. The Rockets’ defense needs to improve, especially Harden. Harden
must give maximum effort chasing Klay around the court or be able to hold his
own on a mismatch switch.
On paper, the other personnel
moves actually look pretty good for a defensive mindset. CP3 is a top defender
at the point. P.J. Tucker, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, and Trevor Ariza seem to
be the type of versatile wing players to afford a lot of switching. The
Warriors thrive on ball movement and player movement and the opposition has to
be schematically defensively sound more so than just pure one-on-one defending.
That means good coaching leading to defensive communication, continuity, and
commitment.
The Rockets defense can get
better, but will it ever be good enough? Houston now has good defensive
players, not necessarily defensive studs. Their defense projects as less
stalwart than the Warriors’ defense, who have all-defensive team talents in
Klay, Iguodala, Durant and Draymond. The Dubs have proven they can turn off the
faucet while the Rockets may only be able to slow the flow.
The Rockets are assembling
their army but they may need Morey to snag more Olympians to take down the
champs.
3. Milwaukee Bucks
The Milwaukee Bucks’ outlook
depends not on where they are now, but where they can be over the next five
seasons. They have a budding roster with oozing potential the way Golden
State’s roster looked pre-Kerr.
Why it is possible: The Giannis Effect, Length, and
Thon Maker.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, aka the
Greek Freak, aka the Alphabet, is a beast. He became the first player in NBA history to finish
top 20 in the league in all five major statistical categories: total points,
rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks. He also became the fourth in history to
lead his respective team in all five categories. Versatility is the most sought after trait to
thwarting the Warriors and Giannis has got it all.
Giannis is scarily only 22
years old. In his first four seasons in the league, every year he has increased
all five of those aforementioned stats, plus field goal percentage. Last
season’s strides were the greatest as Giannis took home the Most Improved
Player award. The hottest Giannis topic is discussing not if but when he will
win MVP. NBA championships are predicated on superstar players and Giannis has
the most out of this world potential in the entire league. What can he become
and when he becomes it who will be able to stop him?
Equally important in
assessing the Bucks potential in this ranking is the rest of the Bucks
complimentary roster. Milwaukee has length and athletes. The wingspans
according to DraftExpress
for the Bucks’ key players include: Giannis (7’3”), Thon Maker (7’3”), Greg Monroe (7’2”), Tony Snell (6'11"), Jabari Parker (6’11”) Khris Middleton
(6’10”) and Malcolm Brogdon (6’10”). That bests the Warriors who are considered
around the league to have long and athletic strengths: Durant (7’4”), Draymond
(7’1”), Iguodala (6’11”), Klay (6’9”), Shaun Livingston (6’11”) and Steph Curry
(6’3”).
The Bucks’ length has caused
the Warriors fits the past two seasons. The Dubs’ offense feels more stagnant
against Milwaukee than against most teams. Deflections seem more prevalent
against the defensive versatility and length. Passing windows look smaller and
shots are more contested.
The key to Milwaukee’s
potential defensive dominance is Maker. Their roster has guys that that can be
quite good and solid defensively but Maker could be stellar. When you watch the
Bucks play, you can observe how Maker hunts on the defensive end. He helps quickly and swats furiously. With Maker there are the Kevin Garnett comparisons and even KG himself had high praise for the young player in
his rookie season. Maker played
sparingly in the beginning of his rookie campaign then earned good time with an
entrenched starter’s role. His deep shot is already decent, putting him in the
potential to have a Draymond-type impact defensively and offensively.
What needs to happen?
The biggest need is having a
point guard worthy of a championship team. Brogdon was solid in his first year
and won Rookie of the Year, but he is far from Steph stratosphere. The Bucks
need an aggressive Brogdon development or plug in a microwave-ready point guard
off the market. The good thing about their point guard future is that the Bucks
have Jason Kidd as their head coach. Kidd, an all-time great, would seem to be
the perfect basketball mind to develop a point or else convince an elite one to
join.
A healthy Jabari is always
an X-factor to add to the offensive efficiency. Monroe is also a solid role
player option that scores with his back to the basket. These type of players
are valuable against the Warriors a kin to how the Memphis Grizzlies have presented
problems for the Dubs over the past few years. The Bucks have the core roster.
They just need to reach their sky-high potential.
2. Boston Celtics
The Boston Celtics are the number
two threat to the Warriors because the Celtics present the strongest amalgam of
coach, general manager, and roster.
Brad Stevens
Outside of Pop, Brad Stevens
is the best coach on this list and has room to grow. In Stevens’ first four
years as coach he has lead Boston to a seventh seed in year two, a fifth seed
in year three and one seed and Eastern Conference Finals berth in year four.
Stevens’ coaching has gotten better every year and shines the brightest in the
playoffs. So far he simply outcoaches others in the Eastern Conference.
Stevens has imposed a mix of
high quality offensive execution and discipline with an equally impressive
defense. The Celtics have been the best defense on the Warriors the past few
seasons. Their perimeter play has kept up with the fast-paced Warriors better
than anyone else. The Celtics match up well. There is a chance that former
Celtic Avery Bradley was the cog that kept the Dubs at bay and losing Bradley
may hurt greatly. But a lot of the Celtics’ success has to do with Stevens’
defensive schemes.
Stevens has the insight to
think progressively when it comes to basketball. He recently claimed that he
does not categorize players in terms of the traditional positions (point guard,
small forward, center, etc.). He sees three types of players: ball handlers,
wings and big men. It is this type of simplistic yet flexible perspective that
a coach needs to beat the Warriors. To extinguish the Warriors you need a coach
that mixes and matches and a team that has the players to meet such demands.
Danny Ainge
Danny Ainge, the general
manager of the Celtics, is the brain trust behind developing a roster to
compete with Cleveland in the East and eventually topple the Warriors. Ainge
makes savvy moves and Ainge makes ruthless moves. The guy pulled the trigger
trading Celtics legend Paul Pierce for assets and most recently getting rid of fan
favorite Thomas for what hopes to be an upgrade in Irving. He has the green light to make
any move and is not afraid to take off. His infamous will-trade-his-own-mother
approach is exactly the competitive advantage the Celtics need in order to
compile a championship contender. Much like Morey is an asset in Houston, Ainge
makes a huge impact for Boston.
Roster
In order to compete with the
Warriors a team must have a complete roster laden with star power. Stevens
landed the most prized free agent of the 2017 summer, reuniting with his
college superstar Gordon Hayward. Hayward has developed into an all-star,
capable of carrying his Utah Jazz team’s offensive load into the second round
of the Western Conference. He has flashed playmaking in his repertoire and now
it is time to take the next step on a more complete Boston team.
If the Kyrie Irving trade
goes through, the Celtics have two top offensive threats. Kyrie has proven he
can go toe-to-toe with Steph on the biggest stage. It is conceivable that
Kyrie, at 25, could eventually surpass Steph. Kyrie was unstoppable at times against
the Warriors. His unbelievable finishes and ball handling strikes fear in
Warriors’ faithful, even with the prospect of Klay shadowing Kyrie. A Hayward
and Kyrie pairing places the Celtics as one of the most formidable point
guard/small forward matchups that can hang with the Dubs.
With an established top two,
it comes down to the rest of the Celtics to tip the scales against the
Warriors. Al Horford is an excellent big man. He does not get enough credit
anchoring teams. He is decently mobile for a big man making him perimeter
capable, a necessary feature to take on the Warriors. Horford exhibits all the
championship level intangibles and does all the little things. Since Lebron has
returned to Cleveland only two teams in the East finished higher than the Cavs in the regular
season standings. The 2015-16 Atlanta Hawks with Horford and the 2016-17 Boston
Celtics with a newly acquired Horford. He is a good big man on good teams and a
Horford-Zaza Pachulia matchup favors the Celtics.
The what-ifs are rookie Jayson
Tatum and second-year Jaylen Brown. Tatum has enough hype for Bostonians to
wish for a second coming of Pierce. Brown was one of the most serviceable
rookies last year and he could develop into a solid NBA player both defensively
and offensively. Add in Marcus Morris and rookie Semi Ojeleye and the Celtics
are executing the anti-Warrior blueprint by collecting versatile wing players.
Ainge and assets, Stevens as
the puppet master and a talented roster make the Celtics capable of taking down
the Warriors over the next five seasons. A Beantown game changer would be if
Ainge and Stevens find a way to corral Anthony Davis or Demarcus Cousins to the
Celtics.
1. Lebron James
Lebron James and the
retooled Cleveland Cavaliers.
Or Lebron and a new cast of
Los Angeles Lakers.
Or how about Lebron and the
dysfunctional New York Knicks?
Or possibly Lebron back in
Miami sunshine.
Or even Lebron and an
expansion team.
Lebron is the greatest
threat to the Warriors. The only team Lebron is not public enemy number one to
the Warriors is if Lebron is on the Golden State Warriors.
It is not necessary to deeply
analyze the merits of a Lebron threat that is well documented. He is one of the
greatest players ever and always elevates his teammates to championship level
heights. Lebron can only be slowed by time, age and eventual retirement. With
Lebron spending $1.5 million per year on his body, his commitment to rest and peaking during the
playoffs, he may play at late age championship levels à la Tom Brady.
Lebron
is a Warriors’ problem and Lebron hopes to be the ultimate solution to cracking
Golden State once again.